Thursday, April 9, 2009

Kershaw's Curve


The young lefty has the hopes and dreams of millions on shoulders, will he be able to carry the weight of Chavez Ravine locals through the season into the playoff and dare I say, into the Fall Classic? We know that Chad Billingsley is an absolute stud, if you have ever heard a DBB podcast you know there is nothing but man crush coming from the Balls on this guy. Bills is going to be considered after this season one of the premier NL pitchers, mark the words of the Dodger Blue Balls now. We also have a pretty good idea of what Hiroki Kuroda is capable of, last season he was very consistent, showed good control had a roughly 3 to 1 K:B ratio and he was absolutely lights out in August and September with a 2.29 and 2.96 ERA respectively. The question here is what is Clayton Kershaw going to do?

We know he is a brilliant young talent with tremendous potential, a high 90's fastball, (if you don't believe me, I am watching him pitch right now and he just got clocked at 97) a curveball that buckles even the wiliest of veterans. He still has some work to do with honing that change-up of his and his command has been suspect at times. Currently has over 70 pitches against the Padres in the bottom of the third. All things considered, the guy is 21 and his only real red flag is minor control issues, at age 21 there is plenty of time for him to work on this. By most reputable accounts, the upside predictions indicate he becomes a top five starter in the majors... that sounds SEXY!!! Now, all of this sounds great for the Dodgers future hopes so long as they can hold onto Bills and Kershaw's Curve, but we want to know about this year.... UPDATE (Oh my!!! He just caught Adrian Gonzales by the short hairs as public enemy no.1 rung him up backwards! ) ... if the Dodgers have any ideas of making a playoff run it is all going to hinge upon Kershaw's progression throughout THIS season.

If the Dodgers expect to be relevant come September and October there is no way they can do that with only Bills and Kuroda, Randy Wolf and James McDonald / Jeff Weaver / Eric Stultz / whoever the heck you want to plug in the 5th spot. If Kershaw starts the ascent to his plateau of potential this season, the three man playoff rotation of Billingsley, Kuroda, and Kershaw can get the job done. We might see another blowout like last years series with the Phillies, but there is also the possibility the staff looks like it did against the highly touted Cubs in the divisional series. Frankly, I have not the slightest clue how Kershaw will end up progressing this year, I have high hopes that I believe are reasonable, ERA in the 3.4 to 3.6 range, based on his stats last season there is no reason he should not be able to continue or improve upon his 8.4 K/9 ratio. His WHIP last season hovered right around 1.49, which is not so good, but again this can be traced to his 52 walks, which we are hoping he can reduce this season as he matures and gets more command of his fastball and change. If he can bring that WHIP down into the 1.20 to 1.30 range his whole stat line will reflect that change and he will undeniably be in the upper echelon of NL starters at that point.

Bottom line, command, command, command. Kershaw's Curve will gain more control of his piches this season, and barring injury will have a better season this year than he did last year, which was just dandy for a 20 year old rookie by the way. Unfortunately, we have no way of knowing how much he might improve this season and if he will in fact be able to solidify the Dodger rotation as a force of three more than capable pitchers, only time will tell. So as we wait for that time to pass by and we witness the progression of possibly the best young pitcher in the game, let's all sit back, enjoy his starts, and marvel at the beauty of Kershaw's Curve.

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