Runs Lost - 4.5.10 vs. Pittsburgh

Top of the 4th

This may be the most excusable situation for not driving in a run from third base with less than two outs we will see all year.  James Loney leads off with a fly out to center.  Casey Blakes singles to the hole at short and Blake Dewitt follows with a line drive single to right, moving Casey to third.  At this point, the pitcher is up.  Now, there are very few options in this situation that will produce a favorable outcome.  First, and most likely, Vicente Padilla strikes out and there are still runners on first and third but now with two outs.  Second, he hits a groundball anywhere on the infield, which, unless it is PERFECTLY placed, will result in a double play as he is a pitcher and not only are they slow, but they rarely run hard to first for fear of getting hurt.  Third, he hits a weak fly ball to the outfield that isn't deep enough to score the not so fleet-a-foot Blake from third.  Finally, Padilla gets a basehit or a fly ball deep enough to score Blake (and let's throw walks into this category as well since it would produce a desirable result). 

Padilla has an outstanding career OBP of .163, so the chances of him getting on base here are, well, not good.  Now, about the sacrifice fly.  Do you know how many sac flies Padilla has in his 267 career plate appearences?  Well, it's one more than you or I do (assuming you aren't Albert Pujols... and if you are, heck of a way to start the year yesterday, huh?  You think you can keep up your 324 homerun pace?  If so, I'll need to trade for you in fantasy).  When Vicente hasn't been asked to lay down a sacrifice bunt (or has simply failed to do so), he has come to the plate 241 times.  While I have tried to find the information on how often a given player comes to bat with a run on third and less than two outs (meaning a sacrifice fly situation), I can't seem to find it anywhere (if anyone can point me in the direction, let me know and I'll update the numbers).  Anyway, let's assume it's 10% of the time to be conservative.  So, in Padilla's 241 non-bunting plate appearances, he has come up in a sac fly situation approximately 24 times.  He has managed to succeed in driving the runner home on a sac fly once, so 4.2% of the time.  If he reaches base 16.3% of the time and hits a sac fly 4.2% of the time, that means the chance of him being successful in that situation was approximately 20.5%.  Seems high, doesn't it?  Nevertheless, this is not what happened as Joe Torre asked him to lay down a sac bunt and move Dewitt to second, setting up a second and third situation with Rafael Furcal coming to bat.  I am going to assume that he has been successful in 75% of his sacrifice attempts, thought that number is not based on anything beyond a guesstimate on my part.  So, 75% of these situations result in second and third with two outs.  The other 25% result in first and third with two outs if he fails to get the bunt down (this assumes he makes one out if he does not get the bunt down rather than hitting into a double play).  Regardless, let's assume that if he is asked to bunt, the inning will continue to Furcal either way. 

Furcal's career OBP is .350, meaning 35% of the time the at-bat will end successfully.  While I would love to dig deeper and show the odds of scoring one run, two runs, or more than two runs based on each situation, let's just show this as there being a 35% chance of success if Torre has Padilla bunt versus a 20.5% chance of success if he is allowed to swing away.  While Furcal was unable to drive in the runs, this appears to be the correct strategic decision on Torre's part.  The Dodgers should score in that situation, but it is tough to find someone to blame for the lack of scoring.

Top of the 8th

With the Dodgers trailing 8-5, Dewitt leads off the eighth with a groundout to second.  Garrett Anderson pinch hits and grounds a single up the middle.  Furcal follows with a base hit to right to move Anderson to third.  Now, in this situation, down three runs, Russell Martin should be looking to get on base one way or another as the Dodgers still need at least one more baserunner to tie the game.  Instead, he takes two quick strikes and ends up striking out looking.  Brutal.  Even a sac fly in that situation would have cut the deficit to two runs and brought up Andre Ethier as the tying run with Manny right behind him.  Even if Ethier makes an out, our two best hitters would be coming up to lead off the ninth with a chance to tie the game.  As it turns out, the Pirates scored three in the bottom of the eighth to put the game away.  But, maybe Torre plays it differently if it is a two-run game.  Martin has got to find a way to foul off tough pitches and put the ball in play somewhere to give the Dodgers a chance to score.

Two runs left on base in the first game of the season.  Despite an overall decent day at the plate, they are runs that simply cannot be given away.  Something we will keep an eye on the rest of the way.